March 11, 2019Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, S&P500 & Yields.

Pivot points, Support, Resistance & Fibonacci Reversal levels; Chart of Interest – <Oil_WTI>. {updated 5PM EST }

FX Performance (Strongest to Weakest)
Strongest Weakest
Best Performer Worst Performer
  • Market performance (DAILY)

    Market Performance (click to enlarge)

Market Comments
Forex  The British Pound outperformed the rest of the majors as a crucial week for BREXIT begins. The first vote is to either accept or reject PM May’s proposed deal to BREXIT and will be held on March 12, 2019 evening (BST) after a full day of debate. This had been roundly rejected when a previous vote was held and consensus is that this will be the outcome again. If this does pass this time then BREXIT will being on March 29, 2019 but in an orderly manner where the status quo would prevail while a permanent trading agreement is ironed out. The key is that the deadline would be December of 2020 and threats of chaos would be minimized. If it is rejected again as most experts expect then there will be a second referendum on March 13, 2019 where the Members of Parliament will vote on “NO DEAL BREXIT” which, as the name implies, means that UK will leave EU without a deal on March 29, 2019. This is the outcome that causes the most angst in financial markets. There have been calls of GBPUSD at 1.10 in short order if NO DEAL BREXIT happens. Rejecting this will bring about a third vote on March 14, 2019 where the topic is to request a DELAY to BREXIT. This appears to be the likely result, at least the one that the market prefers.
S&P500 S&P500 ended the day up and would have been higher had it not been for Boeing’s stock getting hammered. The fatal air crash over the weekend, the second involving a Boeing plane in the past few months, saw investors bailing on the world’s largest plane maker.
Oil & Yields
 Crude oil rose by 1.4% as the verbal tug of war between OPEC+ and market forces continues. Today OPEC+ won as remarks by a high ranking Saudi official doubling down on production cuts buoyed the commodity.

US and German 10Yr yields were marginally higher.

  • Chart of Interest – Oil_WTI (Daily)
    Saudi rhetoric gave a boost to oil prices as the commodity continued its Friday bounce of the confluence of support levels in mid $54 area. Currently price is re-testing the broken ascending trend line where one can expect sellers to emerge. A clear break of $58 is needed to give credence to OPEC+ policy while a breach of Friday’s low ($54.30) would shift focus to $50.

    (click to enlarge)

  • Pivot Points & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
    A technical analysis indicator used to try and determine the short-term trend of the market. The pivot point is calculated from the previous trading periods’ price action. If the market on the following period trades above the pivot point it is thought to be exhibiting bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish. The Fibonacci retracement is the potential reversal of a financial instrument’s original move in price.

    Market Metrics (click to enlarge)