March 12, 2019Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, S&P500 & Yields.

Pivot points, Support, Resistance & Fibonacci Reversal levels; Chart of Interest – <NZDUSD>. {updated 5PM EST}

FX Performance (Strongest to Weakest)
Strongest Weakest
Best Performer Worst Performer
  • Market performance (DAILY)

    Market Performance (click to enlarge)

Market Comments
Forex  New Zealand Dollar ended the day as the best performer while the Pound lagged the rest of the majors. The British unit experienced volatility as it gyrated within a 300 pip range. The reason was quite obvious as today was the day for the big vote to approve PM Mays’ negotiated deal to exit the European Union in as orderly manner as possible. This was thoroughly rejected again, though the margin was slightly smaller (391/242 -vs- 432/202 on January 15, 2019). Despite the PM’s last minute efforts, the issue of the “backstop”, a safety arrangement that bypasses the return to a hard border between Northern Ireland (part of UK) and Ireland (remains in EU) if an appropriate deal cannot be reached after BREXIT, remained contentious. Next comes the vote, slated for tomorrow, that will have financial markets on tenterhooks. Will UK leave the EU without a deal? – The “NO DEAL BREXIT”. Consensus is for this to be resoundingly rejected as well but that will do nothing to allay investor apprehension.
S&P500 Rally in technology stocks, a tepid report on inflation (core CPI was lower than market expectations) and further jaw-boning by a high ranking Trump administration official that US-China trade deal talks were getting close to completion all contributed to equities ending the day higher.
Oil & Yields
Crude oil continued to climb abetted by OPEC+ policies to stabilize prices, worsening of the Venezuelan crisis and a weaker US Dollar.

US and German 10Yr yields were lower.

  • Chart of Interest – NZDUSD (Daily)
    Kiwi built on gains, extending above the 21-day EMA as price action looks to test the upper end of the triangle formation at 0.6880. A break would bring resistance levels at 0.6905 and 0.6945 into focus. Conversely, failure to break higher could see the pair reverse direction and target the lower bound of the triangle.

    (click to enlarge)

  • Pivot Points & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
    A technical analysis indicator used to try and determine the short-term trend of the market. The pivot point is calculated from the previous trading periods’ price action. If the market on the following period trades above the pivot point it is thought to be exhibiting bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish. The Fibonacci retracement is the potential reversal of a financial instrument’s original move in price.

    Market Metrics (click to enlarge)