Yield Curve Analysis – October 30, 2026

Tenor / Metric	30 Oct 2026	23 Oct 2026	Weekly Δ
3-month	4.16%	4.22%	–6 bp
6-month	4.25%	4.30%	–5 bp
1-year	4.36%	4.44%	–8 bp
2-year	4.56%	4.69%	–13 bp
5-year	4.71%	4.82%	–11 bp
10-year	4.94%	5.00%	–6 bp
30-year	5.31%	5.33%	–2 bp
AaaAaa represents the highest rung of investment-grade corporate debt, indicating top-level creditworthiness and the lowest default risk. More	6.01%	6.00%	+1 bp
BaaBaa represent the lowest rung of investment-grade corporate debt with moderate credit risk, making them susceptible to higher default risk than Aaa bonds. More	6.47%	6.47%	0 bp
HY OAS	344 bp	338 bp	+6 bp
5Y5Y5Y5Y forward rate provides a market-implied view of where policy ultimately settles once cyclical forces dissipate. Importantly, it captures the destination of policy rather than its near-term trajectory, and should be interpreted as a structural anchor rather than a tactical signal. More Forward	2.22%	2.20%	+2 bp
5Y Breakeven	2.46%	2.48%	–2 bp
MOVE IndexThe ICE Bank of America U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index measures implied volatility of U.S. Treasury yields, derived from options on Treasuries (primarily 2Y–30Y maturities). It’s commonly called the “VIX for bonds”, but more precisely, it reflects the market’s expectation of how much Treasury yields will move, not bond prices. It is a critical cross-asset signal. More	100.20	103.31	–3.11

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Executive Summary

FRONT/BELLY-LED RALLY | MODEST BULL STEEPENER | FEDWATCH REPRICING SOFTENS NEAR-TERM CONVICTION

Treasury yields declined across the curve, led by the front end and belly (2Y –13 bp to 4.56%, 5Y –11 bp to 4.71%). The long end was more stable (10Y –6 bp to 4.94%, 30Y –2 bp to 5.31%), producing a modest bull steepenerA bull steepener occurs when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates and is generally associated with rising recessionary fears. More. Key spreads: 10Y–3M held near +78 bp while 30Y–2Y widened 11 bp to +75 bp. FedWatch saw a sharp reduction in conviction around +25 bp outcomes, most notably a collapse in the January +25 bp probability. Cross-market signals were mixed: HY OAS widened another 6 bp to 344 bp while MOVE eased to 100.20.

Central tension: Front-end relief and reduced near-term hike conviction alongside persistent long-end elevation and further high-yield spread widening.

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Curve Decomposition (Front | Belly | Long)

• • • Front end (3M–1Y)
      3M 4.16% (–6 bp), 6M 4.25% (–5 bp), 1Y 4.36% (–8 bp).
      Clear easing. Short-maturity yields declined more than the long end, consistent with the FedWatch shift away from concentrated near-term tightening.
    • Belly (2Y–5Y)
      2Y 4.56% (–13 bp), 5Y 4.71% (–11 bp).
      Strongest performance on the curve. Intermediate yields led the rally, reflecting both the reduction in near-term hike probabilities and broader horizon adjustments.
    • Long end (10Y–30Y)
      10Y 4.94% (–6 bp), 30Y 5.31% (–2 bp).
      More muted decline. The 10Y remains 44 bp above the 4.50% equity-valuation threshold and well below its recent high of 5.365%. DurationBond Duration: Estimates the percentage change in a bond’s price for every 1% shift in interest rates. For example, a bond with a 3-year duration will gain or lose roughly ±3% of its value if rates fall or rise by 1%. More demand was present but less dominant than in the prior week.

Geometry: Modest bull steepenerA bull steepener occurs when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates and is generally associated with rising recessionary fears. More. Yields fell across the curve, but the larger declines in the 2Y–5Y sector relative to the 30Y produced a steeper profile.

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Policy Path Clock

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Cross-Market Risk Dashboard

Signal	Level / Change	Reading
HY OAS	344 bp (+6 bp)	Further widening
Baa–AaaAaa represents the highest rung of investment-grade corporate debt, indicating top-level creditworthiness and the lowest default risk. More spread	46 bp (0 bp)	Stable (IG resilient)
MOVE IndexThe ICE Bank of America U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index measures implied volatility of U.S. Treasury yields, derived from options on Treasuries (primarily 2Y–30Y maturities). It’s commonly called the “VIX for bonds”, but more precisely, it reflects the market’s expectation of how much Treasury yields will move, not bond prices. It is a critical cross-asset signal. More	100.20 (–3.11)	Easing but still elevated
2Y / 10Y	–13 / –6 bp	Front/belly led

Bond VIX: ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index

The ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index is the primary gauge of expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Often called the "VIX for bonds," it measures market sentiment and interest rate risk by tracking the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options.

Bond VIX

Date	bp
1/3/2020	60.12
1/10/2020	60.12
1/17/2020	53.32
1/24/2020	49.67
1/31/2020	59.94
2/7/2020	72.98
2/14/2020	65.59
2/21/2020	62.38
2/28/2020	74.54
3/6/2020	109.67
3/13/2020	125.21
3/20/2020	138.4
3/27/2020	133.37
4/3/2020	88.33
4/10/2020	65.01
4/17/2020	74.39
4/24/2020	69.84
5/1/2020	66.09
5/8/2020	48.11
5/15/2020	57.4
5/22/2020	56.53
5/29/2020	51.67
6/5/2020	51.55
6/12/2020	61.97
6/19/2020	55.81
6/26/2020	53.45
7/3/2020	51.21
7/10/2020	50.96
7/17/2020	49.19
7/24/2020	45.68
7/31/2020	42.48
8/7/2020	41.98
8/14/2020	41.46
8/21/2020	43.09
8/28/2020	45.14
9/4/2020	48.19
9/11/2020	47.04
9/18/2020	43.12
9/25/2020	37.24
10/2/2020	36.97
10/9/2020	39.97
10/16/2020	57.52
10/23/2020	57.25
10/30/2020	58.46
11/6/2020	61.91
11/13/2020	39.88
11/20/2020	42.95
11/27/2020	42.31
12/4/2020	39.64
12/11/2020	43.89
12/18/2020	47.52
12/25/2020	44.64
1/1/2021	42.11
1/8/2021	48.98
1/15/2021	44.81
1/22/2021	45.14
1/29/2021	43.09
2/5/2021	47.41
2/12/2021	47.2
2/19/2021	47.01
2/26/2021	60.43
3/5/2021	75.66
3/12/2021	69.37
3/19/2021	70.83
3/26/2021	68.8
4/2/2021	61.49
4/9/2021	63.71
4/16/2021	61.21
4/23/2021	62.57
4/30/2021	59.98
5/7/2021	58.13
5/14/2021	54.13
5/21/2021	54.99
5/28/2021	54.59
6/4/2021	52.04
6/11/2021	49.78
6/18/2021	50.85
6/25/2021	60.45
7/2/2021	55.58
7/9/2021	52.41
7/16/2021	59.92
7/23/2021	58.24
7/30/2021	65.28
8/6/2021	61.19
8/13/2021	62.64
8/20/2021	55.45
8/27/2021	59.95
9/3/2021	57.98
9/10/2021	53.26
9/17/2021	51.73
9/24/2021	56.06
10/1/2021	58.46
10/8/2021	57.38
10/15/2021	59.65
10/22/2021	62.7
10/29/2021	72.04
11/5/2021	75.45
11/12/2021	66.9
11/19/2021	78.61
11/26/2021	73.39
12/3/2021	89.45
12/10/2021	79.14
12/17/2021	74.36
12/24/2021	72.46
12/31/2021	77.29
1/7/2022	77.1
1/14/2022	74.69
1/21/2022	76.59
1/28/2022	81.03
2/4/2022	85.29
2/11/2022	87.68
2/18/2022	94.03
2/25/2022	94.36
3/4/2022	93.34
3/11/2022	131.82
3/18/2022	99.03
3/25/2022	91.77
4/1/2022	125.27
4/8/2022	108.34
4/15/2022	124.86
4/22/2022	119.66
4/29/2022	128.12
5/6/2022	128.4
5/13/2022	121.42
5/20/2022	114.61
5/27/2022	111.1
6/3/2022	98.48
6/10/2022	97.73
6/17/2022	114.23
6/24/2022	133.75
7/1/2022	127
7/8/2022	144.17
7/15/2022	145.25
7/22/2022	129.85
7/29/2022	123.7
8/5/2022	116.36
8/12/2022	122.58
8/19/2022	106.28
8/26/2022	123.81
9/2/2022	122.95
9/9/2022	120.72
9/16/2022	121.54
9/23/2022	124.95
9/30/2022	137.28
10/7/2022	141.89
10/14/2022	148.46
10/21/2022	152.89
10/28/2022	156.95
11/4/2022	144.6
11/11/2022	128.44
11/18/2022	111.69
11/25/2022	129.33
12/2/2022	129.6
12/9/2022	118.62
12/16/2022	132.79
12/23/2022	113.65
12/30/2022	113.17
1/6/2023	121.61
1/13/2023	113.87
1/20/2023	113.55
1/27/2023	114.76
2/3/2023	100.7
2/10/2023	98.99
2/17/2023	109.63
2/24/2023	110.11
3/3/2023	122.84
3/10/2023	122.52
3/17/2023	140.06
3/24/2023	180.11
3/31/2023	173.66
4/7/2023	135.93
4/14/2023	139.2
4/21/2023	118.84
4/28/2023	120.84
5/5/2023	122.46
5/12/2023	130.21
5/19/2023	120.52
5/26/2023	127.51
6/2/2023	145.37
6/9/2023	120.95
6/16/2023	115.77
6/23/2023	104.43
6/30/2023	105.74
7/7/2023	110.64
7/14/2023	130.41
7/21/2023	112.48
7/28/2023	106.66
8/4/2023	109.76
8/11/2023	115.91
8/18/2023	112.13
8/25/2023	120.51
9/1/2023	110.37
9/8/2023	102.92
9/15/2023	104.34
9/22/2023	96.61
9/29/2023	101.11
10/6/2023	113.55
10/13/2023	126.64
10/20/2023	128.33
10/27/2023	135.45
11/3/2023	129.16
11/10/2023	118.74
11/17/2023	116.79
11/24/2023	113.11
12/1/2023	107.43
12/8/2023	111.51
12/15/2023	121.65
12/22/2023	115.75
12/29/2023	111.38
1/5/2024	114.62
1/12/2024	116.19
1/19/2024	106.51
1/26/2024	104.97
2/2/2024	100.23
2/9/2024	106.72
2/16/2024	106.21
2/23/2024	109.2
3/1/2024	108.31
3/8/2024	106.48
3/15/2024	100.88
3/22/2024	97.82
3/29/2024	91.04
4/5/2024	86.38
4/12/2024	94.31
4/19/2024	112.82
4/26/2024	111.26
5/3/2024	104.4
5/10/2024	95.96
5/17/2024	94.23
5/24/2024	89.35
5/31/2024	83.57
6/7/2024	91.14
6/14/2024	91.82
6/21/2024	100.16
6/28/2024	94.09
7/5/2024	98.59
7/12/2024	98.78
7/19/2024	86.79
7/26/2024	94.29
8/2/2024	97.76
8/9/2024	112.26
8/16/2024	108.26
8/23/2024	102.81
8/30/2024	105.63
9/6/2024	107.77
9/13/2024	107.24
9/20/2024	100.6
9/27/2024	91
10/4/2024	92.53
10/11/2024	100.15
10/18/2024	118.47
10/25/2024	123.13
11/1/2024	128.4
11/8/2024	132.58
11/15/2024	99.85
11/22/2024	102.47
11/29/2024	99.14
12/6/2024	95.22
12/13/2024	83.2
12/20/2024	85.66
12/27/2024	91.75
1/3/2025	94.8
1/10/2025	93.35
1/17/2025	96.57
1/24/2025	95.6
1/31/2025	86.75
2/7/2025	91.76
2/14/2025	93.13
2/21/2025	84.67
2/28/2025	91.83
3/7/2025	104.46
3/14/2025	104.41
3/21/2025	101.01
3/28/2025	94.54
4/4/2025	96.83
4/11/2025	125.71
4/18/2025	137.26
4/25/2025	114.64
5/2/2025	105.79
5/9/2025	101.4
5/16/2025	100.4
5/23/2025	96.7
5/30/2025	100.91
6/6/2025	92.11
6/13/2025	89.65
6/20/2025	95.31
6/27/2025	90.1
7/4/2025	87.93
7/11/2025	86.09
7/18/2025	85.48
7/25/2025	83.29
8/1/2025	82.09
8/8/2025	83.83
8/15/2025	79.2
8/22/2025	76.66
8/29/2025	78.1
9/5/2025	79.39
9/12/2025	85.29
9/19/2025	73.37
9/26/2025	72.51
10/3/2025	74.38
10/10/2025	69.53
10/17/2025	81.65
10/24/2025	78.62
10/31/2025	68.94
11/7/2025	66.61
11/14/2025	74.41
11/21/2025	79.71
11/28/2025	78.81
12/5/2025	68.95
12/12/2025	67.28
12/19/2025	69.25
12/26/2025	59.41
1/2/2026	58.5
1/9/2026	62.36
1/16/2026	61.55
1/23/2026	58.05
1/30/2026	56.25
2/6/2026	59.2
2/13/2026	63.62
2/20/2026	70.1
2/27/2026	64.27
3/6/2026	73.38
3/13/2026	81.26
3/20/2026	91.17
3/27/2026	108.84
4/3/2026	111.95
4/10/2026	81.78
4/17/2026	72.15
4./24/2026	65.7
5/1/2026	66.97
5/8/2026	70.41
5/15/2026	67.25
5/22/2026	79.87
5/29/2026	78.43
6/5/2026	70.22
6/12/2026	75.2
6/19/2026	69.36
6/26/2026	65.39
7/3/2026	66.79
7/10/2026	65.4
7/17/2026	69.55
7/24/2026	70.88
7/31/2026	76.82
8/7/2026	83.02
8/14/2026	72.03
8/21/2026	69.58
8/28/2026	73.4
9/4/2026	70.97
9/11/2026	73.1
9/18/2026	82.21
9/25/2026	80.64
10/2/2026	96
10/9/2026	107.29
10/16/2026	98.47
10/23/2026	101.1
10/30/2026	103.31
11/6/2026	100.2

Investment-grade yields were essentially unchanged while high-yield spreads continued to widen. MOVE declined modestly from the prior week’s elevated level. The configuration remains consistent with selective durationBond Duration: Estimates the percentage change in a bond’s price for every 1% shift in interest rates. For example, a bond with a 3-year duration will gain or lose roughly ±3% of its value if rates fall or rise by 1%. More demand rather than a broad improvement in risk appetite.

Expected 10yr ranges (by timeframe):

Timeframe	Low (%)	High (%)
1 week	4.80	5.08
1 month	4.65	5.23
1 year	3.94	5.94

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Implications & Positioning Lens

The front-end and belly-led decline eases near-term discount-rate pressure more than the long end. The 10Y at 4.94% is 44 bp above the 4.50% equity threshold (improved from 50 bp the prior week) and remains well below the recent high of 5.365%. A forward P/E of 18.7 continues to imply an earnings yield of approximately 5.35%, a modest premium over the 10Y.

However, the further widening in HY OAS to 344 bp and the still-elevated MOVE reading keep the risk backdrop cautious. The FedWatch repricing reduces conviction around incremental near-term hikes but does not shift the overall path toward easing. The combination of front-end relief, stable long-end yields, mixed inflation compensation, and deteriorating high-yield pricing argues for a nuanced reading: policy uncertainty has increased at the margin, but the curve has not yet priced a decisive growth or inflation resolution.

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Bottom Line

• Primary signal: Front- and belly-led bull steepenerA bull steepener occurs when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates and is generally associated with rising recessionary fears. More accompanied by a sharp reduction in FedWatch concentration on +25 bp outcomes.
• Policy: Near-term path remains tilted toward further tightening, but with materially less conviction on the size and timing of the next moves.
• Risk: High-yield spreads widened further while MOVE eased only modestly—still a cautious configuration.
• Unresolved: Whether the front-end rally reflects durable reduction in policy restrictiveness or simply a redistribution of hike probabilities; long-end yields remain elevated relative to equity thresholds.

Positioning bias implied by the data: selective quality durationBond Duration: Estimates the percentage change in a bond’s price for every 1% shift in interest rates. For example, a bond with a 3-year duration will gain or lose roughly ±3% of its value if rates fall or rise by 1%. More remains supported, but high-yield credit continues to warrant caution until spreads stabilize.

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Summary Cheat-Sheet Table

Metric	30 Oct 2026	Signal
Curve regime	Bull steepenerA bull steepener occurs when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates and is generally associated with rising recessionary fears. More	Front/belly led
10Y–3M spread	+78 bp	Stable
30Y–2Y spread	+75 bp	Steepened
10Y vs 4.50% threshold	+44 bp	Improved but elevated
FedWatch next key meeting	Less concentrated	Reduced +25 bp conviction
HY OAS	344 bp	Widening
MOVE	100.20	Easing but elevated
5Y5Y5Y5Y forward rate provides a market-implied view of where policy ultimately settles once cyclical forces dissipate. Importantly, it captures the destination of policy rather than its near-term trajectory, and should be interpreted as a structural anchor rather than a tactical signal. More / 5Y BEI	2.22% / 2.46%	Nearly unchanged

Yield Curve Data

Date	3-mth	6-mth	1-yr	2-yr	5-yr	10-yr	30-yr	AaaAaa represents the highest rung of investment-grade corporate debt, indicating top-level creditworthiness and the lowest default risk. More	BaaBaa represent the lowest rung of investment-grade corporate debt with moderate credit risk, making them susceptible to higher default risk than Aaa bonds. More	HY-OAS	5Y5Y5Y5Y forward rate provides a market-implied view of where policy ultimately settles once cyclical forces dissipate. Importantly, it captures the destination of policy rather than its near-term trajectory, and should be interpreted as a structural anchor rather than a tactical signal. More Forward	5Y Breakeven Inflation	MOVE IndexThe ICE Bank of America U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index measures implied volatility of U.S. Treasury yields, derived from options on Treasuries (primarily 2Y–30Y maturities). It’s commonly called the “VIX for bonds”, but more precisely, it reflects the market’s expectation of how much Treasury yields will move, not bond prices. It is a critical cross-asset signal. More
10/30/2026	4.16	4.25	4.36	4.56	4.71	4.94	5.31	6.01	6.47	3.44	2.22	2.46	100.20
10/23/2026	4.22	4.30	4.44	4.69	4.82	5.00	5.33	6	6.47	3.38	2.2	2.48	103.31
10/16/2026	4.26	4.34	4.46	4.74	4.89	5.09	5.43	6.06	6.55	3.31	2.33	2.37	101.10
10/9/2026	4.25	4.32	4.47	4.80	5.02	5.24	5.60	6.22	6.69	3.11	2.32	2.34	98.47
10/2/2026	4.19	4.27	4.46	4.83	5.06	5.28	5.63	6.28	6.75	3.10	2.35	2.37	107.29
9/25/2026	4.24	4.33	4.50	4.81	4.98	5.17	5.49	6.18	6.63	2.93	2.34	2.34	96.00
9/18/2026	4.14	4.24	4.44	4.76	4.86	5.01	5.34	5.98	6.41	2.68	2.35	2.31	80.64
9/11/2026	4.07	4.12	4.35	4.63	4.78	4.96	5.35	6.03	6.46	2.65	2.32	2.4	82.21
9/4/2026	3.91	3.98	4.13	4.37	4.54	4.78	5.24	5.92	6.34	2.68	2.33	2.37	73.1
8/28/2026	3.90	4.02	4.15	4.34	4.48	4.73	5.22	5.86	6.27	2.60	2.32	2.3	70.97
8/21/2026	3.88	3.95	4.03	4.24	4.43	4.74	5.27	5.92	6.37	2.70	2.34	2.34	73.4
8/14/2026	3.86	3.95	3.98	4.17	4.36	4.68	5.25	5.92	6.37	2.67	2.3	2.24	69.58
8/7/2026	3.87	3.96	4.01	4.19	4.35	4.65	5.19	5.85	6.29	2.7	2.28	2.22	72.03
7/31/2026	3.83	3.98	4.08	4.28	4.45	4.75	5.27	5.96	6.38	2.84	2.3	2.26	83.02
7/24/2026	3.96	4.08	4.14	4.33	4.43	4.69	5.16	5.87	6.28	2.79	2.28	2.24	76.82
7/17/2026	3.85	3.96	4.01	4.18	4.28	4.55	5.06	5.72	6.14	2.73	2.21	2.27	70.88
7/10/2026	3.85	3.99	4.06	4.21	4.30	4.56	5.06	5.72	6.14	2.69	2.2	2.28	69.55
7/3/2026	3.82	3.98	3.96	4.14	4.23	4.49	4.98	5.6	6.02	2.74	2.22	2.24	65.4
6/26/2026	3.83	3.94	3.94	4.07	4.12	4.38	4.87	5.5	5.94	2.83	2.19	2.21	66.79
6/19/2026	3.83	3.92	4.00	4.19	4.23	4.46	4.90	5.5	5.97	2.66	2.23	2.27	65.39
6/12/2026	3.78	3.82	3.86	4.09	4.21	4.48	4.97	5.52	6.01	2.71	2.23	2.39	69.36
6/5/2026	3.78	3.81	3.88	4.17	4.29	4.55	5.01	5.53	6.06	2.76	2.24	2.48	75.2
5/29/2026	3.69	3.78	3.79	3.98	4.13	4.45	4.99	5.5	6.02	2.72	2.24	2.52	70.22
5/22/2026	3.68	3.79	3.86	4.13	4.27	4.56	5.07	5.61	6.13	2.74	2.26	2.54	78.43
5/15/2026	3.69	3.77	3.82	4.09	4.26	4.59	5.12	5.65	6.21	2.80	2.28	2.7	79.87
5/8/2026	3.69	3.74	3.75	3.90	4.02	4.38	4.95	5.47	6.03	2.81	2.28	2.62	67.25
5/1/2026	3.68	3.71	3.73	3.88	4.02	4.39	4.97	5.49	6.08	2.77	2.27	2.69	70.41
4/24/2026	3.69	3.71	3.67	3.78	3.92	4.31	4.91	5.41	6.01	2.86	2.23	2.61	66.97
4/17/2026	3.70	3.69	3.64	3.71	3.84	4.26	4.88	5.36	5.98	2.83	2.16	2.56	65.7
4/10/2026	3.69	3.72	3.70	3.81	3.94	4.31	4.91	5.42	6.03	2.94	2.14	2.58	72.15
4/3/2026	3.71	3.73	3.72	3.84	3.99	4.35	4.91	5.44	6.05	3.13	2.11	2.61	81.78
3/27/2026	3.73	3.75	3.77	3.88	4.06	4.44	4.98	5.66	6.22	3.42	2.06	2.56	111.95
3/20/2026	3.74	3.79	3.80	3.88	4.01	4.39	4.96	5.61	6.18	3.24	2.13	2.63	108.84
3/13/2026	3.72	3.70	3.66	3.73	3.87	4.28	4.90	5.60	6.11	3.28	2.11	2.61	91.17
3/6/2026	3.71	3.68	3.56	3.53	3.67	4.10	4.73	5.32	5.86	3.13	2.14	2.56	81.26
2/27/2026	3.68	3.61	3.48	3.42	3.58	4.02	4.64	5.25	5.77	3.10	2.1	2.40	73.38
2/20/2026	3.69	3.60	3.51	3.46	3.65	4.08	4.72	5.25	5.76	2.86	2.13	2.43	64.27
2/13/2026	3.68	3.59	3.42	3.40	3.61	4.04	4.69	5.31	5.81	2.95	2.12	2.42	70.1
2/6/2026	3.68	3.59	3.45	3.54	3.80	4.26	4.85	5.40	5.90	2.87	2.18	2.50	63.62
1/30/2026	3.67	3.61	3.48	3.54	3.81	4.24	4.87	5.35	5.86	2.80	2.19	2.53	59.2

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is an online database created and maintained by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis