Daily Report – 2026-10-02


S&P 500 Report

Top 10 Contributors


S&P 500: 7722.72 | 📈 Up (0.75%)

Market Structure Score


41/100

Weak Structure
Multiple internal measures are deteriorating, suggesting an elevated probability of continued weakness.
Market Summary
Executive Summary

Internal activity reflected active sector rotation rather than a decisive directional trend, with capital continuing to migrate between market leadership groups. Internal confirmation remains limited, reducing confidence in the durability of the current market character.

Market Character

Underlying market conditions have weakened sufficiently to raise questions about the durability of the current trend. The Market Structure Score of 41/100 reflects low confidence in this assessment.

Participation

⬥ 287 of 502 stocks advanced (▲57.2%)
⬥ 208 stocks declined (▼41.4%)
⬥ 7 stocks unchanged
⬥ Leadership continued to rotate.
⬥ Leadership was broadly distributed.

Overall, limited participation weakened confirmation of today’s advance.

Leadership

Leadership continued to rotate across sectors, but weakening participation and internal confirmation suggest the rotation is becoming less supportive of the broader market trend.

Risk Assessment

Rapid leadership rotation suggests institutional conviction remains fluid. Breadth continues to lag headline index performance. Participation has weakened across the broader market. Trading conviction remains below recent norms. Should these conditions deteriorate further, confidence in the current market assessment would likely weaken.

Outlook

The outlook remains cautious until participation broadens, leadership stabilizes, and internal confirmation begins to recover.

Bottom Line

The weight of the internal evidence continues to support an orderly sector rotation market environment with low confidence. While short-term price fluctuations are inevitable, sustained improvement in participation and leadership would reinforce the current assessment, whereas renewed deterioration in market internals would warrant a more defensive interpretation.

Market Signals

▶ 📈 Cap-weighted leadership confirmed the advance.

▶ 🔍 Leadership remained moderately concentrated.

▶ 🔄 Leadership rotation accelerated.

▶ ⚠️ Large-cap leadership outpaced the broader market.

Top Contributors (>0.01%)

Ticker Return Contribution Share Impact_Efficiency Rank
NVDA 1.34% 0.11% 7.93% 0.081569 1
AVGO 3.35% 0.10% 7.41% 0.030490 2
GOOGL 1.59% 0.10% 6.94% 0.060165 3
TSLA 4.65% 0.08% 6.11% 0.018065 4
AAPL 1.02% 0.07% 5.20% 0.070144 5
AMZN 1.33% 0.05% 3.67% 0.038059 6
MSFT 0.92% 0.05% 3.27% 0.048795 7
AMD 2.95% 0.04% 2.81% 0.013094 8
CSCO 3.16% 0.02% 1.81% 0.007886 9
TXN 4.44% 0.02% 1.37% 0.004256 10
ORCL 3.06% 0.02% 1.37% 0.006150 11
CAT 2.31% 0.02% 1.13% 0.006719 12
KLAC 3.27% 0.01% 1.02% 0.004289 13
LRCX 2.17% 0.01% 1.02% 0.006447 14
AMAT 2.03% 0.01% 0.90% 0.006111 15
UNH 1.83% 0.01% 0.74% 0.005516 16

Definitions:

Contribution – The weighted impact of a stock’s return on the overall index move
(weight × return). This reflects how much each stock actually moved the index.

Share – The proportion of total index movement attributable to a given stock.
Higher values indicate outsized influence relative to peers.

Impact Efficiency – The ratio of contribution to return, highlighting how effectively
a stock’s price move translates into index impact (primarily driven by index weight).


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