Dashboard Last Updated: May 22, 2026 at 11:49 AM
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Status (Trend) | Reference Period | Next Release Date | Release Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.57% | 📈 Rising | May 2026 | Daily | N/A |
| Core PCE | 3.20% (YoY) | 🔴 Deteriorating | Mar 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Core PCE (monthly) | 0.29% (MoM) | 🟢 Improving | Mar 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Nominal GDP | 5.64% (Ann.) | 🟢 Improving | Q1 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Real GDP | 1.99% (Ann.) | 🟢 Improving | Q1 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| GDP Price Deflator | 3.57% (Ann.) | 🟢 Improving | Q1 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| U3 Rate | 4.30% | 🟡 Neutral | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| U6 Rate | 8.20% | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Employment-Pop Ratio | 59.10% | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | +115k | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Labor Participation | 61.80% | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.16% (MoM) | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Sahm Recession Indicator | 0.13% | 🟢 Improving | Apr 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Core CPI | 2.99% (YoY) | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Retail Sales (Ex-Autos/Gas) | 0.48% (MoM) | 🔴 Deteriorating | Apr 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 | 08:30 AM |
| Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 🔴 Deteriorating | May 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | 10:00 AM |
✅ ECONOMIC STATUS: ALL CLEAR: Current macro conditions reflect a stable expansion. With Real GDP at 1.99% and a sub-threshold Sahm reading, hard macro data continues to point toward expansion rather than contraction. Consumer sentiment is at 44.8
Inflation Outlook
Core inflation remains somewhat firm, indicating that the final leg of the cooling process may be nonlinear. Although the broader disinflation trend has not fully reversed, this pace of price growth continues to test the patience of a data-dependent Federal Reserve. Consumer activity remains largely flat in real terms. While nominal spending is positive, it is only narrowly outpacing price increases, suggesting minimal expansion in actual consumption volume. The GDP deflator indicates that economy-wide price stability is largely becoming re-established. With pricing pressures cooling across the broader output landscape, the macro environment appears increasingly conducive to sustainable, non-inflationary growth. The moderation in wage growth provides further evidence of a cooling labor market. As earnings growth aligns more closely with productivity trends, the primary driver of ‘sticky’ services inflation is beginning to lose its intensity, easing the burden on broader monetary policy.
Growth Outlook
Economic growth remains positive but has transitioned toward a below-trend pace. This deceleration suggests that the cumulative effects of restrictive policy are increasingly weighing on broader output. Critically, sentiment has plunged to historically depressed levels (44.8). This signals a profound disconnect between current spending and long-term confidence, historically serving as a leading indicator for defensive household budgeting.
Employment Outlook
Labor market conditions are gradually softening. The upward trend in the unemployment rate suggests a transition toward a better balance between labor supply and demand, albeit from a historically tight baseline. Monthly hiring activity has moderated from the highs seen earlier in the cycle, pointing to a more measured pace of employment expansion as businesses adjust their labor requirements. Wage pressures have moderated, suggesting that labor market rebalancing is occurring without a severe deterioration in overall employment conditions. Tighter financial conditions are likely reinforcing the ongoing moderation in labor demand, contributing to slower hiring momentum across cyclical sectors.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
Financial Conditions: Tighter financial conditions are acting as a persistent headwind to interest-sensitive sectors, reinforcing the ongoing moderation in labor demand. This reinforces the restrictive bias implied by underlying macro conditions. Policy Assessment: Cooling growth, moderating inflation pressures, and increasing labor market slack are shifting the policy balance away from a restrictive stance toward greater emphasis on economic stability.
How to Read This Gauge
- 🟢 Improving: Indicator is moving toward economic health (e.g., lower inflation, higher GDP).
- 🔴 Deteriorating: Indicator is moving away from economic health (e.g., rising unemployment).
- Status (Trend): Change in the current period vs. the prior one.
- Reference Period: The timeframe the data measures (Day, Month, or Quarter).
